21 February 2011

Libya's revolution is the Replay of Iran 1979

When I grow up I wanna be like Jimmy.
The mainstream media has been breathlessly announcing one revolution after another is like Iran in 1979, as if that is what they are waiting for.  Well, press, this is the revolution you have been waiting for, the Libyan revolution of 2011.

Carter only liked anti-USA dictators.
In late 1970s Iran, a revolution fomented and was fueled by an outside source.  In that case, it was the Ayatollah Khomeini.  The conduit was the "state-of-the-art" telephone system the Shah had wired the nation with.  Khomeini was in Paris, France and had a daily message of the day and one of the main international long distance services for Iran was the French telecommunications company.  Khomeini's message of the day frequently called for revolt and it finally worked.  In the case of Libya, the source has not yet been revealed, but the similarities in outcome are uncanny.

The 2011 revolts in Tunisia, Egypt and other locations only resemble 1979 Iran and 2011 Libya in the sense that they are popular revolts against the government.  Something else the 2011 revolts have in common is they tend to be former Soviet client states that became friendly with the USA in recent years, at a time when Russia appears to be working to revive the old Soviet client state system.  What is actually a remarkably uncanny similarity between 1979 Iran and 2011 Libya is the attacks on police stations and military garrisons by the revolutionaries.  This is not a subtle difference, but a dramatic difference from the other revolts.

Results of Carter's Iran policy.
In 1979 Iran, the student and 'peasant' revolution resulted in toppling the military, which looks like it will happen at any moment in Libya if it has not happened already as I write, the Shah's security forces did not protect him and he fled the country.  In the case of Iran, the situation and much of the chaos could have been averted if the USA President, Carter, would have intervened with some support for the Shah.  however, Carter threw his support behind the Ayatollah and opted for an appeasement strategy, which resulted in a 444 day long hostage crisis.  Combined with his appeasement strategy, Carter ordered a military rescue mission "Desert One" that resulted in numerous US military deaths.

Libyans have attacked the military, like 1979 Iran
In the case of the Libyan revolt, it is much too early to tell what will happen in the end.  However, if the fresh track record of President Obama is any indication, the most anti-West and anti-democratic elements in Libya will be encouraged by Obama and "invited to the table."  Since taking office, the Obama administration has taken the side of the most Iran-friendly elements wherever there is a political or revolutionary conflict.  Begin with Gaza, his support and funding of Hamas, move through the months and then linger on Egypt.  It is an indisputable pattern of supporting the most anti-democratic organizations in whatever country is in revolt.  Back to Iran, they have had two national revolts since President Obama has been inaugurated and all he says is that nobody should interfere with the internal affairs of governments that want to shoot their own citizens.

Perhaps he knows the egg breaking analogy has become telegraphic and chose a wordier version of the same thing.

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